The long expected announcement came out today. Ron Paul is officially in the race to be the GOP nominee taking on a very vulnerable Barack Obama in 2012. At 75, Paul would be a pretty old President but he is as sharp today as ever and compared to many of the other nominees is light-years ahead intellectually.
So is Ron Paul likely to win the nomination?
I actually think he would do better in the general election than in the GOP primaries. The biggest obstacle to Paul winning the GOP nomination is his dogged non-interventionist foreign policy. His announcement that if he were President he would not have ordered the raid that killed Osama bin Laden came out at about the same time as his official announcement that he was a contender for the GOP nomination. That didn’t sit well with lots of people.
I am afraid that what can only be called blood lust and fear on the part of many conservatives, including many professed Christians, is an overwhelming factor in the GOP nomination process. A candidate calling for military restraint and reduced military spending is going to get labeled all sorts of ridiculous things and will face an uphill battle. Even suggesting vaguely that cutting military spending cannot be out of the question causes accusations of being soft on defense (as Mitch Daniels is finding out). As I have mentioned before, serious deficit reduction requires serious cuts in all areas and defense cannot and should not be spared.
The only way I see him winning the nomination is if guys like Mitch Daniels stay out and the clown car candidates like Palin, Trump, Gingrich and Huckabee split up the rest of the primary votes (Mitt Romney & Tim Pawlenty are also running but no one seems to care). That coupled with Ron Paul’s shall we say rabid fan base may be enough for Representative Paul to come out as the winner. He certainly is going to do better in 2012 than he did in 2008.
Regardless, Ron Paul should add a different perspective to the race for the GOP nomination other than the repetitive droning of sound bytes we get from Palin, Huckabee, etc. and I welcome his addition to the race.